TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chuang, T.W.
AU  - Wimberly, Michael C.
PY  - 2012//
TI  - Remote sensing of climatic anomalies and West Nile virus incidence in the northern Great Plains of the United States
T2  - article number e46882
JO  - PLoS ONE
VL  - 4
IS  - 10
KW  - anomalies
KW  - change
KW  - climatic variability
KW  - data
KW  - Difference Vegetation Index
KW  - dynamics
KW  - ecology
KW  - environmental factor
KW  - environmental monitoring
KW  - evapotranspiration
KW  - fluctuation
KW  - GAMs
KW  - Great Plains
KW  - hotspot
KW  - imaging
KW  - imaging spectroradiometer
KW  - incidence
KW  - journal articles
KW  - land
KW  - land surface
KW  - land surface temperature
KW  - metric
KW  - model
KW  - Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
KW  - MODIS
KW  - moisture
KW  - moisture availability
KW  - monitoring
KW  - mosquito
KW  - NDVI
KW  - Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
KW  - northern Great Plains
KW  - plains
KW  - population dynamics
KW  - precipitation
KW  - prediction
KW  - remote sensing
KW  - risk
KW  - spectroradiometer
KW  - summer
KW  - surface temperature
KW  - surveillance
KW  - temperature
KW  - United States
KW  - variation
KW  - vector-borne disease
KW  - vegetation
KW  - vegetation index
KW  - West Nile virus
N2  - The northern Great Plains (NGP) of the United States has been a hotspot of West Nile virus (WNV) incidence since 2002. Mosquito ecology and the transmission of vector-borne disease are influenced by multiple environmental factors, and climatic variability is an important driver of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission risk. This study applied multiple environmental predictors including land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to establish prediction models for WNV risk in the NGP. These environmental metrics are sensitive to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and are hypothesized to influence mosquito population dynamics and WNV transmission. Non-linear generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate the influences of deviations of cumulative LST, NDVI, and ETa on inter-annual variations of WNV incidence from 2004-2010. The models were sensitive to the timing of spring green up (measured with NDVI), temperature variability in early spring and summer (measured with LST), and moisture availability from late spring through early summer (measured with ETa), highlighting seasonal changes in the influences of climatic fluctuations on WNV transmission. Predictions based on these variables indicated a low WNV risk across the NGP in 2011, which is concordant with the low case reports in this year. Environmental monitoring using remote-sensed data can contribute to surveillance of WNV risk and prediction of future WNV outbreaks in space and time.
SN  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0046882
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0046882
N1  - Journal
ID  - Chuang+Wimberly2012
ER  -