The USGS has produced datasets that contain probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion for each 1-km section of the Gulf of Mexico coast in response to category 1–5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1–5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. Also included in this dataset are data hydrodynamics (storm surge, wave setup, and runup) and lidar-derived dune morphology (dune crest and toe elevation). As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future. The data are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7QC01KZ. For further information regarding data collection and/or processing methods, refer to USGS Open-File Report 2012–1084 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1084/).
Probability of storm response along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline.