Historical estimates of land use change derived from multiple Landsat imagery dates (1973–2000) were used to develop future, spatially explicit scenarios of land use change modeled to 2100 using a state-and-transition simulation model. We developed a methodology to assess the threat of future land use conversion in close proximity to protected areas under different climate/emission and land use change scenarios. Calculating metrics of scenario agreement and distance of land use conversion from protected area boundaries, we identify ecoregions most susceptible to proximal future land use change. Our recent work examined seven future land use scenarios for the Pacific Northwest and identified the Coast Range, Puget Lowland, and Cascades ecoregions with protected areas most threatened by future land use change. Scenario outcomes represent plausible future outcomes and can help prioritize future conservation strategies.
Conversion threat index (CTI) in the Pacific Northwest from 2000 to 2100.